Why Do Pin Bar Reversal Candles Fail?

If you read my article on the pin bar rejection candle, you should know what one is. But not all pin bar reversal candles, or rejection candles work out. Why do some pin bar reversal candles fail, while others pay out?

Here are 3 reasons why pin bar reversal candles could fail.

1. A news release.

A classic reason for a pin bar reversal failure is a news release. I do not trade through news, but news can dramatically affect the likelihood of a successful outcome of a pin bar reversal set up. As a Forex trader you should always be aware of news releases, to make sure you are not either in a trade when news is coming up, or are about to get into a trade when news is pending. I subscribe to a news feed called Talking Forex that keeps me updated on any price sensitive news no matter how small it may be.

2. The components of the pin bar reversal candles.

bearish pin bar reversal candleHow the candle is made up can also affect how successful the set up will be. The ideal components of pin bar reversal candles are a long pin, or wick as some people call it, and a small body. If the body is too large, or the pin is too small the likelihood is it will not work.

The picture on the right is a great example of a bearish pin bar reversal candle. You can see the wick is nice and large, and the body is small. It is also beneficial that the body is red if its a bearish candle, as this one is, or that it is green in the case of a bullish reversal candle.

You can see how successful this bearish pin bar set up is by the strong move down on the candle to the right of the pin bar. A lot of Forex traders would have recognized this great pin bar set up and quickly jumped into short positions to promote the aggressive move down in price that we can see.

3. The location of the pin bar reversal candles.

The location of the pin bar is a common reason for a pin bar set up to fail. If the pin bar is located at the wrong position within a trend it will fail. Pin bars work best when they are located at a swing high or swing low within a trend.

If a pin bar is located between 2 candles there is also a likelihood that it will fail. The pin bar set up works better when the pin bar is protruding from the 2 candles either side of it.

failed pin bar reversal chart

The chart above shows a number of pin bar set ups. Two that have failed and one that has worked out nicely. The two that have failed are marked with arrows.

You can clearly see from left to right that the first pin bar has failed for 2 reasons. The first reason was the size of the body. The second reason is the location within the trend. Also the body is bullish (green) and it should ideally be bearish (red).

The second pin bar set up worked out nicely for 4 reasons. The pin bar has a nice small body, that is the correct colour for a bearish set up (red), and its at the swing high within the down trend, and it is protruding from the candles around it.

The third pin bar failed because of its location within the trend and the candles either side of it. You can see that the pin bar has a nice wick and a very small almost non existent body, which is very good, but its totally in the wrong position within the move down, it is positioned at a swing low, and it is overpowered by the 2 candles either side of it.

Pin bar reversal candles work very well when the correct set up presents itself. This article covers basic price action set ups. What i teach is advanced price action trading. If you wish to learn how to trade Forex using advanced high probability price action Forex trading, please consider my Forex training course.

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How To Correctly Draw Support And Resistance Lines.

Support and resistance trading.

Support and resistance trading is a major part of price action Forex trading. How the price reacts around support and resistance lines, gives a good indication of what the price is likely to do next. Knowing how to correctly draw support and resistance lines on your Forex chart, will give you a trading edge.

Support and resistance lines can be drawn on any time frame, but i generally do not draw them on time frames of less than 1 hour, as too many lines on your chart can be counter productive, and inhibit your study of price action.

Where to draw support and resistance lines.

This is very much open to interpretation. Some traders draw support and resistance lines from the open and or close of the candle (the candle body). So if you imagine a candle without pins, that is where they will draw their SR lines from. Some traders believe that the opening and closing price of the candle, is more important than the price it went to within the candle formation, which produces the pins.

I think the opposite of that. The overall candle including the pins is where in my opinion you should be drawing your support and resistance lines from. I will explain my reason for that view. Within every candle there is a series of smaller candles. A daily candle for example is made up of 6 four hour candles, 24 one hour candles, 96 fifteen min candles, and so on. Now if you are drawing your SR lines from the body of a daily candle for example, you are not including the complete price action of that day. By drawing your SR lines from the top or bottom of a candle, including the pins you are covering all the price action from that day, swing high to swing low. The same applies on a H4 candle or a h1 candle. By drawing SR lines from the top or bottom of a H4 candle, you are covering all the price action within 4 H1 candles.

How to correctly draw support and resistance lines.

The main thing you need to look for when drawing your support and resistance lines is areas on the chart where price has previously reversed. You need to make sure your SR line is at the top of the candle (including the pin) for resistance, and the bottom of the candle (including the pin) for support. If you can find 2 or more reversal areas at the same price, then that is where you need to put your SR line.

Sometimes you cannot find 2 or more areas at the same price so you need to look for areas that are as close to the reversal area as possible. A general area of rejection will sometimes be enough to give you a potential support or resistance line.

Support and resistance charts.

The charts below will give you a good example of how to correctly draw support and resistance lines.

support level on Forex chart You can clearly see the support level on this chart. There is also a nice pin bar rejection candle at the high of the move.

resistance level on Forex chart

Here is a good example of resistance on a clean Forex chart. Another bearish pin bar rejecting the resistance level.

I hope this article has helped you learn how to correctly draw support and resistance lines.

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Forex Candlestick Patterns. The Pin Bar Rejection Candle.

There are many Forex candlestick patterns, but in this article we will look at a bearish pin bar rejection candle.

A pin bar, or hammer candle, as some traders call it, is a very good signal of a price reversal. Price reversals are the holy grail of Forex trading, and my whole trading strategy is based on using Forex candlestick patterns, to find levels on the chart, where there is a high probability that the price will reverse. If you can identify price reversals with high probability, then you will consistently make money from Forex trading. Forex candlestick patterns are a major part of price action Forex trading, and when mastered they can produce some very profitable trades.

Forex candlestick patterns

So what is a pin bar rejection candle, and how is it formed?

The above chart shows a bearish pin bar reversal candle on the Euro Dollar pair that formed this week, which resulted in a very profitable trade. I took this trade and banked 83 pips from the move down.

The concept behind this bearish pin bar candle, or any pin bar candle is shift in sentiment. In this pin bar candle the sentiment shifted from bullish to bearish. At one point in the candle formation the candle was totally green, and buyers were in control of price, and were happy to buy at this level. At the top of the pin bar the buyers ran out, and the sellers took over, forcing the price back to almost the opening level.

As this pin bar is a 4 hour candle, the buyers at the top of the candle were now sitting on heavy losses, and the sellers were sitting on a nice profit. Now, one of 2 things can happen next, buyers could either see value at a lower price, and add to their position, which would push the price back up and force sellers out, or they could have a shift in sentiment and close their trade for a loss, which would further add to the selling pressure, and push the price down further. In this case they had a change of heart and closed their trades for a loss. This change of sentiment together with sellers adding to their already profitable positions, sees the price move lower. When the candle closes as a pin bar, this signals that sellers are in control of price, and more sellers join the party, which pushes the price down further, and starts a major move down.

To add to the negative sentiment the pin bar has rejected at a key level of resistance, which encourages even more sellers into the market, which adds further weight to the move down.

Forex Candlestick Patterns.

If you study Forex candlestick patterns, you will see the pin bar rejection candle on many different time frames, and at many different levels on the chart, but they do not always indicate that a reversal is imminent. Some work, but some fail. You have to know with the highest probability which ones will work, and which ones will fail, and this is where i come in. I have studied Forex candlestick patterns for over 8 years and i can predict with the highest probability which will work and which will fail. Please see my Forex training course for more information.

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